College Wage Advantage Shrinks as AI Reshapes Job Market
The financial premium for a college degree has declined sharply in recent years, with AI estimated to cause a third of the drop.
The college wage advantage has dropped sharply in the last several years. Researchers estimate a third of this dip is due to AI. Since the pandemic, the job market for people without college degrees has been unusually strong. The college premium, however, remains high.
Long-term trends show uneven college access despite early promise
A Brookings Institution study from 2023 tracked students who started ninth grade in 2009. It found less than half of those students enrolled in a four-year college. A third did not go to any college. Only students from the most economically advantaged families came close to universal college enrollment.
High-poverty schools show varied performance, with P.S. 307 as an outlier
High-poverty schools generally perform worse than more advantaged schools, even on need-adjusted measures. Many, however, score at or above the city average. P.S. 307 does not appear representative of high-poverty elementary schools citywide. It is among the worst performing elementary schools in New York City by a learning impact measure, with the most recent data from 2025. The median score on this measure, which controls for poverty, is 0.5, where a lower score implies worse learning gains.
Nikole Hannah-Jones wrote about her daughter's poor education in two New York City schools, including P.S. 307. Poverty and segregation matter, but instructional quality and school culture also influence outcomes.
Families weigh online learning trade-offs as AI tutoring struggles to engage
Student engagement with Khan Academy’s AI bot remains low. The platform is working to better integrate AI to increase student use. Sal Khan, who started by tutoring his cousins and making math videos, emphasized the human element. "The real power of the one-on-one is the accountability and the pushing. That cannot easily be done by video or AI chatbot," he said.
Most students learn less in online schools. Yet students report lower rates of bullying after opting into online education. Some families appear willing to forego short-run achievement gains for guaranteed improvements in bullying-related outcomes. University of Chicago researcher Chris Campos and colleagues studied online education in Los Angeles.
Public skepticism grows as school districts restrict AI amid conflicting tech visions
A recent poll found most Americans believe schools will better prepare students for the future by banning AI rather than integrating it. A majority of adults believe AI will do more harm than good in schools. This public skepticism exists alongside renewed advocacy from tech leaders. Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, recently argued in a manifesto that everyone will have a personalized tutor via AI. Less than a decade ago, he predicted computer programs would serve as exceptional tutors, but those earlier ed-tech efforts fizzled. Zuckerberg’s new hope for education may be genuine, but he is also leveraging it for a political purpose to argue AI’s value outweighs its harms.
Large school systems including New York City and Los Angeles recently announced sharp restrictions on AI.
